BIBLIOS

  Ciências References Management System

Visitor Mode (Login)
Need help?


Back

Publication details

Document type
Journal articles

Document subtype
Full paper

Title
Spatio-temporal analysis of regional unemployment rates: A comparison of model based approaches

Participants in the publication
Pereira, S. (Author)
Turkman,K.F. (Author)
Dep. Estatística e Investigação Operacional
CEAUL - Centro de Estatística e Aplicações
Correia, L. (Author)

Scope
International

Refereeing
Yes

Summary
This study aims to analyze the methodologies that can be used to estimate the total number of unemployed, as well as the unemployment rates for 28 regions of Portugal, designated as NUTS III regions, using model based approaches as compared to the direct estimation methods currently employed by INE (National Statistical Institute of Portugal). Model based methods, often known as small area estimation methods (Rao, 2003), "borrow strength" from neighbouring regions and in doing so, aim to compensate for the small sample sizes often observed in these areas. Consequently, it is generally accepted that model based methods tend to produce estimates which have lesser variation. Other benefit in employing model based methods is the possibility of including auxiliary information in the form of variables of interest and latent random structures. This study focuses on the application of Bayesian hierarchical models to the Portuguese Labor Force Survey data from the 1st quarter of 2011 to the 4th quarter of 2013. Three different data modeling strategies are considered and compared: Modeling of the total unemployed through Poisson, Binomial and Negative Binomial models; modeling of rates using a Beta model; and modeling of the three states of the labor market (employed, unemployed and inactive) by a Multinomial model. The implementation of these models is based on the \\textit{Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation} (INLA) approach, except for the Multinomial model which is implemented based on the method of Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC). Finally, a comparison of the performance of these models, as well as the comparison of the results with those obtained by direct estimation methods at NUTS III level are given.

Editor(s)
Maria Isabel Fraga Alves

Date of Submisson/Request
2016-04
Date of Acceptance
2016-11
Date of Publication
2018-10

Where published
REVSTAT – Statistical Journal

Publication Identifiers
ISSN - 1645-6726

Address
Lisboa, PORTUGAL

Publisher
INE

Volume
16
Number
4

Number of pages
22
Starting page
515
Last page
536

Document Identifiers
URL - https://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/REVSTAT_v16-n4-7.pdf

Rankings
SCIMAGO Q4 (2018) - Q4 - Probability and Statistics


Export

APA
Pereira, S., Turkman,K.F., Correia, L., (2018). Spatio-temporal analysis of regional unemployment rates: A comparison of model based approaches. REVSTAT – Statistical Journal, 16, 515-536. ISSN 1645-6726. eISSN . https://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/REVSTAT_v16-n4-7.pdf

IEEE
Pereira, S., Turkman,K.F., Correia, L., "Spatio-temporal analysis of regional unemployment rates: A comparison of model based approaches" in REVSTAT – Statistical Journal, vol. 16, pp. 515-536, 2018.

BIBTEX
@article{40334, author = {Pereira, S. and Turkman,K.F. and Correia, L.}, title = {Spatio-temporal analysis of regional unemployment rates: A comparison of model based approaches}, journal = {REVSTAT – Statistical Journal}, year = 2018, pages = {515-536}, volume = 16 }